7 December 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its largest monthly options expiration of 2025, with a total exposure of as much as $13,8 billion. This upcoming event offers the bulls an opportunity to push the price of Bitcoin above $110.000, especially after the bears were surprised by a 25% increase in the past month.
The open interest in Bitcoin put options (sell options) is $6,5 billion. What is notable is that 95% of these positions are below $109.000. This means that if the price of Bitcoin remains at current levels, less than $350 million in put options will remain relevant at expiration.
In contrast, the open interest in Bitcoin call options (buy options) up to $109.000 is $3,8 billion. However, this skewed balance does not mean that all call option holders are betting on Bitcoin price increases; some traders have sold these options as a way to hedge against risk at higher price levels.
Recently, one of the most significant trading strategies on Deribit has been the “short call”. This approach is often used by investors who seek a steady income as long as the price of Bitcoin remains above a certain threshold level. There is also the “bull call spread” strategy, which allows investors to protect themselves from downturns by sacrificing profits above a certain level.
If Bitcoin holds above $109.000, most bullish strategies could yield positive results during the May options expiry. However, it is possible that bears will try to influence the futures markets to limit their losses as the expiry date approaches. The total open interest in Bitcoin futures currently stands at $79 billion, indicating strong demand for short positions. However, this strategy could backfire if Bitcoin rises above $110.000, as bears could be forced to close their positions.
Between May 20 and May 22, a net $1,9 billion in inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were observed, suggesting continued demand above $105.000. Ultimately, bears’ hopes rest primarily on a weakened macroeconomic environment that could increase risk aversion and reduce demand for Bitcoin.
The scenarios for Bitcoin price are as follows, based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate hypothetical profits based on open interest and do not take into account complex strategies:
The bulls have a chance to maximize their gains by pushing BTC above $110.000, which could also mark a new all-time high. However, the continuation of this bull market depends on the developments in the current trade war, which has been gaining a lot of attention recently.
The current dynamics in the Bitcoin market strategically position bulls for a potential price surge above $110.000, especially with the strength of options expiry approaching. However, markets remain volatile, and it is crucial to keep a close eye on macroeconomic factors and other influences.
How do options affect Bitcoin price?
Options help mitigate risk and can influence the price of Bitcoin depending on the open interest and trading strategies of investors. A strong presence of call options can push the price up, while put options can exert downward pressure.
What are the implications of Bitcoin ETFs for the market?
The increased inflow into Bitcoin ETFs indicates a growing demand for Bitcoin as an asset, which could contribute to price increases. Strong inflows from institutional investors increase market volatility.
What can investors expect from the current market?
Investors should expect the possibility of volatility. Outlooks are dependent on macroeconomic developments and technical crossroads in the market, especially around key price levels such as $110.000.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
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