15 Januari 2026
Bitcoin is trading above $100.000 again and while investors sensitive to recent developments may be quick to conclude that this will be a similar situation to the December-January period – where the upward momentum quickly disappeared and prices fell back into six figures, eventually even to $75.000 – the bitcoin market environment now appears more robust than it was then. This points to a higher probability of a continuation of the upward trend.
Financial conditions include various economic variables such as interest rates, inflation, credit availability and market liquidity. These are influenced by the benchmark government paper, the US 10-year interest rate and the dollar exchange rate, among other factors.
Tighter financial conditions discourage risky investments in the markets, while looser conditions have the opposite effect. At the time of writing, financial conditions, as represented by the 10-year yield and the dollar index, are considerably easier than in January. This seems to indicate a continued increase in BTC to improve.
By the time we wrote this article, the dollar index, which measures the dollar’s value against other major currencies, was at 99,60, down 9% from highs of above 109,00 in January. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was at 4,52%, down 30 basis points from a peak of 4,8% in January.
The 30-year yield has risen above 5% again, reminiscent of January levels, but is generally seen as positive for bitcoin and gold.
The combined market cap of the two major dollar-fixed stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has hit a record high of $151 billion. This is almost 9% higher than the December-January average of $139 billion. This means that there is now more ‘dry powder’ available for potential investment in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
BTC’s recent price rally from early April lows around $75.000 has been marked by institutional investors taking primarily bullish positions, rather than engaging in arbitrage. This is evident from the strong inflows into U.S.-traded bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the still-moderate open interest in CME bitcoin futures.
According to data, notional open interest in CME bitcoin futures has risen to $17 billion, the highest since Feb. 20. However, this is still below the December peak of $22,79 billion. In contrast, cumulative inflows into the 11 spot ETFs now stand at a record $42,7 billion, up from $39,8 billion in January.
Historically, interim and main highs in Bitcoin, including those from December-January, have been marked by speculative fervor in the broader market. This has led to a sharp increase in market valuations for non-serious tokens such as DOGE and SHIB. However, there are currently no signs of such excesses, as the combined market cap of DOGE and SHIB is significantly below their January peaks.
The Bitcoin perpetual futures market is showing demand for bullish leveraged bets, which is understandable given that BTC is trading close to record highs. Despite this, overall positioning remains light, with no signs of excessive leverage build-up or overheating, as evidenced by funding rates that are well below December highs.
The chart shows funding rates, which indicate the cost of holding perpetual futures positions. A positive value indicates a preference for longs and indicates the bulls’ willingness to compensate shorts to keep their positions open. This is a sign of optimism in the market.
The bitcoin market appears much calmer this time around, with Deribit's DVOL index, which measures 30-day expected or implied volatility, significantly lower than the levels seen in December-January and at the March 2024 price tops.
The low IV shows that traders are not pricing in the extreme price movements or uncertainty that normally exists in an overheated market. This suggests a more moderate and possibly more sustainable uptrend.
“The only constant in the crypto world is change—and sometimes you just have to take a risk!”
The world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is changing rapidly. With increasing interest and a resilient market, it is important to stay informed and not miss opportunities. Pay attention to the signals, do your homework, and who knows, you might not only follow the market, but also determine it!
How do financial conditions affect the bitcoin price?
Financial conditions such as interest rates and market liquidity play a crucial role in investors' risk behavior, which directly impacts Bitcoin price.
What is the meaning of the increase in stablecoin market cap?
An increase in stablecoin market cap means more capital available for investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which can support prices.
Why are there no signs of speculative fervor as in the past?
Current market conditions show that investors are less inclined to speculate in non-serious tokens, and the focus is more on sustainable investments in BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
XRP (XRP)
