Wall Street's Bitcoin Misconceptions: Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn Sheds New Light

De houding van Wall Street ten opzichte van Bitcoin heeft een opmerkelijke wending genomen, van euforie naar een diepgeworteld scepticisme. Dit blijkt uit de observaties van Alex Thorn, hoofd Research bij Galaxy Digital. In een recente interview op What Bitcoin Did legde hij bloot dat deze verschuiving minder te maken heeft met samenzweringstheorieën of een enkele bearish (negatieve) katalysator, maar eerder het gevolg is van een uitgeputte vraag, de verkoopdruk van langetermijnhouders, en een markt die nu worstelt met het vinden van een nieuwe narratief.

Thorn downplays claims that institutions like Jane Street are responsible for Bitcoin's weakness. He describes this line of thinking as "Twitter cope," a misguided way of thinking. He argues that the majority of the frustration with the price action reflects disappointment rather than evidence of deliberate price manipulation.

"What do you think their incentive would be to suppress the price?" Thorn asks. After all, Bitcoin is worth a trillion dollars, and it's difficult to manipulate markets of this size in a specific direction, given its large, free market.

The Dynamics of the Market

Thorn's broader explanation is remarkably simple. During the period from late 2024 until the US elections and inauguration, a long Bitcoin position was "the most popular trade in the world." This is changing as capital migrates to other sectors. Stocks related to AI, semiconductors, energy companies, and gold are attracting more attention, while Bitcoin's upward momentum is slowly waning.

Meanwhile, long-term holders continuously distributed coins during price spikes. Thorn calls these sales structural, rather than worrisome. "This is literally how distribution happens, and that's how you make a profit in a transaction," he explains. This results in a higher realized price, which in turn sends a positive signal. This means that investors with significant funds are willing to buy Bitcoin at high prices. In his view, this reflects a personal sign of adoption.

Still, Thorn acknowledges that market sentiment has deteriorated significantly, especially among professional investors. He points out that Bitcoin's failure to behave as "digital gold" after September significantly damaged the narrative that many allocators had embraced. This comment highlights how Wall Street has taken that term too literally.

"We didn't intend it to trade with a high beta (volatility) relative to GLD," Thorn explains. "It has properties similar to gold, but its trading behavior hasn't fully reflected that yet. If you believe this difference will eventually disappear, that's your alpha (excess return)."

This dispute has further dented sentiment among institutional investors, especially as macroeconomic concerns intensify. Thorn offers insight into the tension surrounding AI; investors are worried that the technology either can't justify massive capital expenditures or is becoming so thoroughly integrated that it destroys jobs and destabilizes markets. If stocks come under pressure from this uncertainty, he suggests, Bitcoin may struggle to insulate itself from these negatives.

Despite this short-term perception, Thorn draws a clear line between sentimental fluctuations and long-term convictions. "We really need to focus on explaining its fundamental purpose and use cases, and the value to the Bitcoin holder as the reason it's rising in value," he says. "Stop begging Jay Powell to buy your positions. That's not sustainable. The reason it's rising is because people truly understand Bitcoin's custodial technology."

For Thorn, that's the biggest story right now: while Wall Street may be negative, the long-term objective is still whether more investors will view Bitcoin as a sustainable store-of-value asset rather than a temporary macro trade.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why has Wall Street's attitude towards Bitcoin become so negative?
The decline in enthusiasm stems from a combination of depleted demand, selling by long-term holders, and the shift of capital to other sectors like AI and gold. This dynamic has put pressure on Bitcoin's price, while the market struggles to formulate a new narrative.

What is the role of long-term holders in today's market?
Long-term holders play a crucial role by selling coins during price spikes. These activities can be seen as constructive for the market's health, as they promote the distribution of Bitcoin to new investors willing to pay higher prices, which benefits the realized price.

What does the future of Bitcoin look like according to Thorn?
Thorn believes it's essential for Bitcoin to be seen as a sustainable asset rather than a passing fad. Despite the negative feedback from Wall Street, he sees long-term adoption opportunities as crucial for Bitcoin's future as a value-added technology.