StanChart Confirms $200K Bitcoin Forecast During Shutdown

StanChart Confirms $200K Year-End Forecast for Bitcoin as US Government Shutdown Offers Benefits

4 October 2025 at 08: 20

Reading time: 2 minutes

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, remains optimistic about Bitcoin (BTC) and recently reaffirmed his year-end price target of $200.000. Kendrick points to recent inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming US government shutdown as catalysts that could propel the cryptocurrency to new highs in the coming weeks. In a recent message to clients, he indicated that Bitcoin is poised to break its all-time high and that a price of $135.000 could be closer than previously predicted. With three months left in the year, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have now reached nearly $50 billion. This begs the question: what would this mean for investors?

Catalyst of the Government Shutdown

Kendrick argues that the current government shutdown is significantly more impactful than the 2018-2019 shutdown, when Bitcoin's reaction was minimal. He notes that Bitcoin has traded strongly in line with "US government risks" this year, as reflected in Treasury premiums. This political gridlock could benefit the cryptocurrency. The Polymarket prediction platform currently gives a 60% chance that the shutdown will last between 10 and 29 days, which Kendrick considers favorable for Bitcoin prices during this period. This increases the excitement and opportunity for investors who want to position themselves for a potential price increase.

ETF flows and market conditions

While gold ETFs have recently seen more inflows than Bitcoin ETFs, Kendrick expects this trend to soon reverse in favor of the digital asset. Demand for Bitcoin ETFs is showing increasing momentum, and this initial inflow appears to have begun a breakthrough. Kendrick explains that this rising demand, combined with Bitcoin's growing correlation with macroeconomic risk factors, signals Bitcoin's maturation as a financial asset. He therefore predicts at least another $20 billion in inflows by the end of the year, which could be essential for reaching his annual level of $200.000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has maintained its position as the number one cryptocurrency in the market, with a price increase of 1,63% over the past 24 hours and a total market value of $2,45 trillion. The broader crypto market is currently valued at $4,21 trillion, with Bitcoin maintaining a 58,14% dominance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the government shutdown mean for Bitcoin prices?
The government shutdown presents a unique opportunity for Bitcoin to capitalize on the uncertainty and political instability, potentially leading to increased demand for the cryptocurrency as a safe haven.

How do inflows into Bitcoin ETFs compare to those into gold ETFs?
While gold ETFs are currently experiencing more inflows, Kendrick expects interest in Bitcoin ETFs to increase rapidly, which could signal a shift in market dynamics in Bitcoin's favor.

How does demand for Bitcoin ETFs impact the price?
An increase in demand for Bitcoin ETFs could act as a strong price driver, which could contribute to a significant increase in the Bitcoin price, especially heading into the end of the year.

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