Rare Bitcoin Futures Signal: Are We Forming a Bottom?

The fundamental of Bitcoin futures relative to the spot price has dipped into negative territory, indicating a significant shift in trader sentiment toward risk reduction. For the first time since March 2025, futures are trading below the spot price, erasing the usual premium that signals strong demand for leverage. This transition to a discount phase in futures suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) traders are increasingly reluctant to take risks, and instead discount the short-term outlook for BTC.

A negative base typically forms during periods of position unwinding (closing out positions) or when markets are preparing for volatility. Currently, BTC is in the so-called "Base Zone," a range typically associated with strong selling pressure or reduced exposure. Both the seven-day and thirty-day moving averages are trending downward, confirming a bearish (or negative) stance in the futures market.

Historically, every instance where the seven-day moving average turned negative has coincided with a bottom forming during bull phases. If the market hasn't fully transitioned into a bear market, this can again serve as an early indicator of recovery. However, if current conditions mirror those of January 2022, this signal could mark the beginning of a deeper pullback. A return to the 0%–0,5% range would be the first indication of renewed confidence among traders.

The data also shows that the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio has fallen to 0,3, indicating that the previously overheated leverage in the third quarter has finally cooled. A lower ratio reflects a reduced risk of forced liquidations and a healthier futures market structure. Should bullish momentum return, this cleaner leverage structure could act as a positive catalyst by giving traders more room to take risks again without the fragility seen earlier this year.

The search for Bitcoin's bottom continues

Crypto analyst Pelin Ay has noted that internal exchange flows add further weight to the current negative narrative. This metric measures the volume of BTC moving between internal exchange wallets, typically for operational purposes or liquidity balancing. While not a direct measure of selling, sharp spikes often accompany turbulent periods and large moves by key players.

From late 2024 to early 2025, there were massive internal transfer spikes during rapid price increases, followed by sharp corrections. This pattern repeated itself in May-June 2025 when BTC rose from $60.000 to $90.000, validating the bullish correlation. Now, this metric has risen again, well above the usual 5-10 range in early November. This spike coincided with BTC's sharp drop from above $110.000 to $95.000. Historically, such spikes reflect liquidity stress, increased volatility, and price pressure.

Given the combination of a negative base, rising internal flows, and accelerated downward momentum, BTC appears to be preparing for a further search for a bottom.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the negative basis mean for investors?
The negative base suggests traders are currently looking to reduce risk. This could mean investors should be cautious when entering new positions, as sentiment points to a wait-and-see attitude and potentially increased volatility in the near future.

How can leverage ratio impact the market?
A lower leverage ratio indicates fewer forced liquidations, creating a healthier environment for trading activity. This reduces the risk of sharp price movements that can occur due to excessive leverage, giving traders more room to take on risk.

What can we expect from current market conditions?
Given the negative base, coupled with rising internal flows, BTC could continue its downward trend as it searches for a bottom. However, if bullish momentum recovers, this could lead to a significant shift in sentiment and create a solid foundation for future price increases.