Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Purchases Are Losing Their Impact

The world's largest listed holder of bitcoin, Strategy (MSTR), recently announced 4.871 BTC having purchased for an amount of 330 million dollars. This is considered one of the most significant purchases of 2026. However, it raises a recurring question: why do such large purchases not influence the market in the expected way? In fact, we often see a drop in the bitcoin price around the time of these announcements.

The key to this phenomenon lies in understanding market flows. Currently, demand from MSTR represents approximately 7% of total gross inflows, and this share rises to approximately 9% when considering net inflows. Gross inflows reflect only the positive demand flowing into the market, whereas net inflows take both purchases and sales into account, thus providing a clearer picture of the overall pressure on the market. Although Strategy remains a constant buyer, the impact of these purchases is relatively small compared to broader market influences.

Historically, the impact was much greater. In November 2024, demand for MSTR peaked at over $15 billion, coinciding with a record high for the company's share price and a Bitcoin price exceeding $100.000. Since then, activity has normalized to a range of $1 billion to $4 billion, with current demand of approximately $2,8 billion over the past 30 days.

However, the dominant force behind the market is driven by long-term holders (LTHs), who hold coins for longer than 155 days and are responsible for approximately $28,5 billion in changed supply. A significant subsegment of this concerns old coins that have re-entered the chain in the past 30 days, representing approximately $9 billion in change.

On the other hand, US spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have added approximately $1 billion in inflows over the past 30 days, while the issuance of miners, at 450 BTC per day, accounts for approximately $880 million in monthly supply pressure.

More importantly, capital continues to leave the market. Bitcoin's realized market capitalization has experienced a decline of $29 billion since February over a 30-day period, while BlackRock's IBIT open position has dropped by more than $4 billion. Collectively, these outflows significantly overshadow demand for MSTR.

Therefore, although Strategy continues to make strong purchases, these efforts are overshadowed by larger forces causing changing supply and capital being drawn out of the system. For investors and analysts, it is crucial to monitor these dynamics. Investment strategies must take into account both internal market movements and external pressure factors that could influence the future price formation of Bitcoin.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do large purchases of MSTR not significantly affect the bitcoin price?
The influence of MSTR on the market is relatively small compared to broader market flows and the increasing outflow of capital. As a result, the price often continues to fall after such announcements.

What are long-term holders and why are they important?
Long-term holders (LTHs) are investors who hold Bitcoin for longer than 155 days. Their sustained presence creates a strong foundation for the market, as they provide a significant amount of change in the supply.

How do ETFs and mineral issuance influence the market?
Spot ETFs contribute to demand through inflows into the market, while the issuance of miners adds supply every day. This affects the total availability of Bitcoin and can exacerbate price pressure if demand decreases.