15 Januari 2026
In the challenging world of crypto, it is always interesting to explore different perspectives. A recent podcast episode took a deep dive into the phenomenal rise of bitcoin, which has now surpassed the $100.000 mark. It appears the market is still heading towards around $150.000.
What I notice is that there is a strong emphasis on the macroeconomic factors that are driving this growth. After the 2008 financial crisis, we have seen a strong dollar, which has attracted foreign investors to US equities. However, this period seems to be turning into an era of sound money management. The interesting dynamics of the S&P 500 versus gold are a key point of attention here. For the first time, we now have a mature bitcoin, with a market cap of a trillion dollars, playing a prominent role in this development. This is a long process, which I expect will take a decade or more to fully come to fruition.
Let’s shift our focus from macroeconomics to market dynamics. After a selloff that took prices from the mid-$90.000s to the $70.000s, Bitcoin recovered surprisingly quickly and easily met the dense supply cluster around $95.000. There is a clear confidence boost among investors. People bought when the price was around $100.000, bought more at $75.000, and are now in the green with their total investment. This kind of behavior is a sign of resilience and confidence.
After this consolidation, the market reached a local high of around $105.000. For experienced investors, the psychological shift is clear: $100.000 was the target for years; now it seems to be the new lower limit. Bitcoin has earned its place in the top five largest monetary assets, and it makes perfect sense.
The basis for these estimates is the market value to realized value (MVRV), which provides insight into where the price should normally be. Historically, this suggests that the current cycle could peak around $166.000. This is where I expect the first serious wave of profit taking to occur. This level is achievable because it is based on actual investor behavior and not just a halving of supply.
A key factor in this story is the emerging derivatives market. I expect the interest rate on perpetual swaps to rise to over 20% annualized during the rally toward $150.000. This will encourage traders to take short positions in futures. At the same time, options traders can profit from the volatility by selling calls.
The dynamics of these instruments are also changing the nature of price corrections. Where previous corrections have seen drastic declines of 40%, we are now seeing a preference for slower, shallow consolidation phases that bring what I call “time pain.” These are not clear losses in value, but rather an exhaustion of patience among investors due to months of swings at the same level.
A notable twist in the discussion was the departure from the traditional four-year halving model. Recent price action suggests that short-term holders are acting less as a weather floor or ceiling and more as a mean-reversion anchor. Investors are increasingly responding to the macro sentiment of the market rather than the market being driven solely by planned supply shocks.
When tracking large players like corporates and ETFs, I compare net dollar inflows over a 30-day period. Even the March and April outflows were nearly offset by declining open positions at CME, indicating more mechanical restructuring of positions than a lack of confidence.
The main takeaway from this is that markets are a big confidence machine. The dollar cycle, rotation between gold and equities, and hedging costs all affect bitcoin. The real question is: what is the fair macro premium for digital sound money? To me, everything points to the market targeting a $150.000 area where confidence will be tested once again.
At the time of writing, the price of BTC $ 102.573.
What makes Bitcoin so special that it can rise to $150.000?
Bitcoin combines the properties of digital money with a proven track record of being a store of value. Its increasing adoption by both retail and institutional investors underscores this potential.
How do macroeconomic trends affect Bitcoin price?
Macro trends such as inflation, dollar value and global economic stability are crucial. Bitcoin thrives as an alternative to traditional currencies and is seen as a safe haven in uncertain times.
What is the role of derivatives in today's bitcoin market?
Derivatives offer traders the opportunity to speculate, manage risk and hedge positions. This provides greater liquidity and stability in the market, which contributes to price movements.
With these insights in mind, the future of Bitcoin seems both challenging and full of potential!
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
XRP (XRP)
