Falling Crypto Prices Fuel Bearish Sentiment: Experts Predict Further Deterioration

The start of November has been marked by a decline in crypto prices, with Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily dipped towards $105.000 on Monday. This has fueled increasing bearish sentiment among investors, with experts warning that the situation could deteriorate further in the coming days.

Crypto expert CryptoBirb recently voiced his concerns on social media platform X, noting that the market has been in a bearish cycle for ten days now. However, after conducting a thorough analysis of on-chain data, the picture becomes increasingly worrying. 1.078 days have passed since the November 2022 lows, representing 101,2% of the crypto cycle. Furthermore, 563 days have passed since the last halving, with 45 days remaining within the typical peak window of 518 to 580 days.

It's striking that the expected rally toward this peak has so far failed to materialize, with only 17 days remaining before the peak window closes on November 20th. Missed breakouts during this period have often signaled the end of bull cycles (rising markets) in the past.

A comparison with the 2017 cycle shows that Bitcoin peaked on December 17, 2017, 1.068 days after its low. Now that Bitcoin is 1.078 days into the current cycle, the chances of a late peak decrease as time passes and the cryptocurrency continues to trade below $113.000.

From a performance perspective, Bitcoin is down 16% from its all-time high of $126.200 and has gained only 8,2% year to date. The leading cryptocurrency has repeatedly experienced rejections in the $113.000-$114.000 range and is currently trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $109.882.

Historically, November has seen an average increase of 17,5%, with positive performance in 10 of the last 15 years. However, experts point out that when November starts in the red, it often indicates the cycle is already shifting.

Barriers and Potential Recovery Points in the Crypto Market

As bearish sentiment expands, DeFi researcher DeFiIgnas has identified several factors complicating the crypto market's trajectory. These factors include what he calls the "speculative nature of the AI ​​bubble," the failure of optimistic news to revive crypto prices, the uncertainty surrounding failed entities after the October 10 crash, and the cyclical nature of the market.

Moreover, selling activity from long-term holders and negative cash flows in crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are adding to existing concerns.

However, DeFiIgnas has also identified some potential bull factors that could promote a recovery rather than further declines. These include the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing of liquidity and rate cuts, the lack of euphoria in the crypto space, gradual but steady institutional adoption, and the potential passage of US legislation regarding crypto market structure.

Factors such as the historically strong fourth-quarter performance, record-high stablecoin supply, and a recent US-China trade deal could also help counterbalance the prevailing bearish sentiment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main concerns for Bitcoin right now?
The biggest concerns are the continued declines below key price points and the fear that the cycle is already shifting, with increasing bearish sentiment among investors.

What can investors expect in the coming weeks?
Investors may face a challenging period of volatility and uncertainty, with the possibility of further price declines if no significant breakouts occur.

Are there any positive signs for the crypto market?
Yes, there are some bull factors such as potential rate cuts by the Fed and continued institutional interest in crypto, which could contribute to a market recovery over time.