April 19, 2026
Bitcoin currently stands at $117.000, up 3,3% over the past 24 hours. This development is partly fueled by the weakening of the US dollar amid a looming government shutdown. Investors in uncertain times are increasingly leaning towards more dovish policies, which has allowed BTC to reclaim $114.000 and continue its upward movement as a hedge against instability. This phenomenon is typical during periods of uncertainty, when expectations for real returns weaken.
According to data from Glassnode on October 1st, short position liquidations as BTC reclaimed the $114.000 threshold were a major factor in the further price rise. This dynamic has not only lifted Bitcoin itself, but also major altcoins such as Ethereum, which climbed above $4.300 (up 3,9%), while BNB traded above $1.020 (up 1,4% on the day). Other altcoins, such as XRP and Cardano, saw a daily increase of 2,9% to $2,92 and 3,8% to $0,8381 respectively. Solana and Dogecoin closed with gains of 4,6% to $218,20 and 5% to $0,2444.
The recent 32.000 drop in private employment in September, the largest decline in about two and a half years, plays a crucial role, especially now that the shutdown threatens to delay official employment data. This has forced traders to rely more heavily on proxy data, leading to increased expectations for rate cuts. The odds of a 25 basis point rate cut this month even exceeded 90% for the first time on Polymarket on October 1st.
Reuters highlighted weak Automatic Data Processing (ADP) data and the growing reliance on private data amid the vacuum of government information. Meanwhile, recent positions and fund flows helped anchor this rise; on September 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of 3.200 BTC.
The "Uptober" narrative offers additional support. Historically, October is a favorable trading season for BTC. Liquidity is also thinner than usual this week due to Golden Week in Asia, making the order book more accessible for price fluctuations when momentum reverses. Demand for ETFs, a supportive trading calendar, and light order books are the catalysts that allow a modest macro surprise to feed further into the price.
What could transform the rise into a strong upward trend, however, remains the combination of three factors: the dollar and real yields, the duration of the information vacuum from Washington, and whether demand for ETFs persists as the holiday-reduced liquidity replenishes itself. If the dollar remains under pressure and expectations for rate cuts hold, dip-buying demand will be high. At the same time, if the proxies deteriorate or are halted, the current rally could lose ground just as quickly. Currently, the balance of forces seems favorable for variation.
The October 1st surge is therefore a combination of macro influences from weaker employment figures and a soft dollar, seasonal demand in the "Uptober" period, and a squeeze that bought shorts once the spot price exceeded $114.000.
How important is the dollar to Bitcoin's price movement?
The dollar plays a crucial role in Bitcoin's valuation. A weakening dollar could put additional pressure on alternative assets like BTC, as investors often seek non-traditional stores of value in times of uncertainty.
What are the implications of the recent employment figures for the crypto market?
The decline in employment highlights the economy's vulnerability and could lead to increased demand for crypto as a safe haven. Investors may be anticipating moderate interest rate cuts, which could further increase BTC's attractiveness.
Why is October historically a strong month for Bitcoin?
Traditionally, October has seen positive price action for Bitcoin, driven by seasonal buying behavior and shifts in investor sentiment, which can be exacerbated by factors such as ETF demand and liquidity changes.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
XRP (XRP)
