Circle is moving ahead with its plans to go public, while also exploring the possibility of being sold to Coinbase or Ripple, according to recent reports from people familiar with the matter. In April, Circle filed documents for a long-awaited initial public offering (IPO), targeting a $5 billion valuation. But the informal takeover talk could affect the company’s share price.
Discussions are still in the early stages and exploratory in nature, with no formal bids on the table yet. Still, insiders believe Coinbase is the most logical candidate given its deep integration with Circle’s USDC stablecoin ecosystem.
In 2018, Coinbase and Circle formed a joint venture called the Centre Consortium, originally co-managing the USDC cryptocurrency. In 2023, this structure was dissolved, giving Circle full control over the governance of the stablecoin, while the exchange acquired an equity stake and favorable profit sharing.
Circle’s S-1 filing shows that Coinbase and the stablecoin issuer split the residual income from the reserves backing the USDC 50/50. However, when USDC is held directly on Coinbase’s platform, the exchange receives 100% of that income. This revenue stream has become increasingly important, as evidenced by Coinbase’s recent results, which show a significant increase in revenue from USDC-related activities.
Additionally, there are provisions that limit Circle’s ability to enter into significant new USDC partnerships without Coinbase’s consent, and give Coinbase partial intellectual property rights in the event of Surcle’s insolvency. These arrangements indicate a level of interdependence that has led some insiders to view the companies as virtually inseparable. One banker familiar with the discussions stated that if Coinbase were to signal any intention to buy Circle, “Circle would sell in a heartbeat.”
Ripple Labs also approached Circle with a bid of $4-5 billion, but it was rejected as too low. Ripple's offer reportedly consisted of a mix of cash and XRP. According to the XRP Markets report for the first quarter, Ripple held 4,56 billion XRP, worth approximately $11,8 billion, on its balance sheet, and an additional 37,13 billion XRP (approximately $95,7 billion) in escrow as of the end of March.
While Ripple has been active in acquisitions, including its recent purchase of prime brokerage Hidden Road for $1,25 billion, Coinbase has been suggested to be better positioned to acquire Circle given its cash reserves and access to the public market. Coinbase had $XNUMX billion in cash at its last quarterly closing ceremony. It has already completed several acquisitions this year, including that of crypto derivatives exchange Deribit for $2,9 billion and on-chain advertising platform Spindle.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said that Coinbase is continually evaluating M&A opportunities, but remains selective due to the complexity of integration. So far, Circle remains committed to going public, but a private equity executive noted that the situation could evolve as things “change on a weekly basis.”
What are Circle's current plans?
Circle is in the process of going public and simultaneously exploring the possibility of being acquired by Coinbase or Ripple.
Why is Coinbase a logical candidate for acquisition?
Coinbase’s deep integration with Circle’s USDC ecosystem makes it a natural acquisition target, especially given Coinbase’s financial reserve.
Provider Ripple approached Circle, but what went wrong?
Ripple offered between $4 and $5 billion, but Circle rejected the offer because it was seen as too low.