Bitcoin $99.000 Resistance: Whales vs. Long-Term Investors

Bitcoin Resistance at $99.000: New Whales vs. Long-Term Investors Analysis

11 January 2026 at 13: 54

Reading time: 2 minutes

Recent developments have led to a rally in the Bitcoin price, which is currently trading near $90.000. After a period of upward movement, the most recent correction has raised questions about the resistance level that appears to be around $94.000. However, the latest on-chain analysis suggests a more significant resistance level lies just below $100.000.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr recently shared an interesting hypothesis on social media regarding the price development of BitcoinHis observations are based on the Realized Price New Whale Short-Term Holders (STH) versus Old Whale Long-Term Holders (LTH) indicator.

This metric compares the average acquisition cost of recently tightened whale holdings (short-term holders) with that of long-term Bitcoin holders. Adler Jr. notes that new whales currently have an average entry price of around $99.000. Given Bitcoin's current value of around $90.000, this means these new whales are holding their positions at unrealized losses.

If the leading cryptocurrency approaches this average acquisition price of $99.000, it could prompt investors to sell. This implies that these large BTC holders are exiting the market at breakeven levels or with minimal losses. When the largest Bitcoin investors decide to sell, it often has a direct impact on the price, as buying momentum diminishes and downward pressure increases. Consequently, the entry point for these investors, in this case $99.000, becomes significant resistance, both psychologically and technically.

Average Cost of Long-Term Whales at $39.000

In another analysis on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Arab Chain revealed the average cost profile of different cohorts of Bitcoin investors. While the new whales are holding onto their unrealized losses, the metric for Binance user deposits tells an interesting story.

According to the analyst, the average cost on Binance is around $52.691, which shows that a significant portion of Bitcoin traders are currently profitable. Miner whales, holders of more than 1.000 BTC, are in a comfortable position with an average cost of $58.681. This indicates significant gains for Bitcoin miners, which translates to expected minimal selling pressure from this group.

For long-term Bitcoin holders, the situation is even more favorable. These investors hold their coins with an average acquisition cost of $39.681, putting them in a profit position. This clearly demonstrates that Bitcoin has a structurally optimistic outlook, supported by a strong investment community. Should downward pressure emerge in the markets, I expect this will be more related to short-term profit-seeking than panic selling by large investors. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is around $90.624, with little significant movement since the past day.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do new whales influence Bitcoin's price development?
New whales, with an average entry price of $99.000, may be inclined to sell their holdings if the price rises to this level, which could put downward pressure on the Bitcoin price.

What does the average cost of Bitcoin holders say about the market?
An average cost of $52.691 on Binance and $39.681 for long-term holders indicates that a significant number of investors are in profit positions, reducing the likelihood of panic selling.

Could Bitcoin experience a price drop?
While a decline cannot be ruled out, it seems more likely to be the result of profit-taking by short-term holders than massive selling by long-term holders.

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