Bitcoin Forecast: What to Expect After Red October?

Bitcoin Forecast: What's Ahead After Red October?

4 November 2025 at 14: 12

Reading time: 2 minutes

Bitcoin Bitcoin is now on the cusp of November, after an October that ended in the red for the first time in six years. This is leading investors to question whether this decline signals a deeper bear market (a prolonged period of price declines) or rather a healthy reset for the next bullish phase. Bitcoin's current price is hovering around $107.000, down 1,4% over the past 24 hours. This has led to a total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market of $3,64 trillion, according to CoinGecko data. The recent sell-off resulted in over $1,16 billion in liquidations of long positions, confirming the intensity of the recent liquidation wave.

The red October unfolded against a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's announcement about the end of quantitative tightening and potential rate cuts was followed by comments that tempered expectations for a rate cut in December. This ambiguity surrounding macroeconomic policy has put pressure on risky assets, with Bitcoin's returns falling from -0,94% on October 29th to -4,56% during US trading hours this week, according to Velo data. Geopolitical tensions have also eased following the agreement between Trump and Xi, which de-escalated the trade war. This temporary pause averts threatened 100% tariffs and extends a fragile truce between the world's two largest economies.

What's next?

Could this red October indeed be the foundation for the next major phase of Bitcoin's bull cycle? Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, believes so. "Corrections like this often represent the midpoint of a broader cycle, rather than its end." Historical data supports this optimistic view: Bitcoin's average return in the third quarter has remained at 6,05%. November also has a strong track record historically, with an average return of 42% over the past 12 years. Lin expects a period of stabilization and cautious optimism in November.

"Bitcoin may move sideways early in the month as markets digest the Fed's comments, but a clear shift in tone could trigger a recovery." She adds that if Bitcoin continues to follow its typical post-halving pattern, a rally to $120.000 to $150.000 by the end of 2025 is within reach, with strong underlying fundamentals from ETF flows to institutional storage solutions. Expectations are for Bitcoin to continue on a range-high path, with strong on-chain data showing that structural demand remains unchanged despite short-term weakness.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Bitcoin's decline mean for investors in the current market?
For investors, this decline can be an opportunity to clarify positions and respond to future expectations. The price adjustments could signal a healthy consolidation before a new uptrend.

How do macroeconomic factors influence the crypto market?
Macroeconomic factors, such as monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, play a crucial role in the fluctuations of risky assets like Bitcoin. Uncertainty can lead to increased volatility, while stability can have a positive effect on pricing.

What is the outlook for Bitcoin in November?
The outlook for November remains positive, with historical data pointing to strong performance this month. However, markets will need to adjust to the Federal Reserve's new policy, which could provide temporary stabilization.

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