The international investment bank JPMorgan expects that bitcoin will outperform gold in the second half of 2025. This prediction is based on several crypto-specific factors that are pushing investors towards digital assets.
According to analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a notable shift has taken place since February. While gold gained ground against bitcoin at the beginning of the year, the trend has reversed since April. “Bitcoin is rising at the expense of gold,” the analysts say. They expect this movement to continue for the rest of 2025.
Gold prices have fallen by almost 22% since April 8, partly due to declining expectations of interest rate cuts by the US central bank. At the same time, bitcoin performed strongly, partly due to large inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs. Futures markets also confirm the trend: investors are reducing their exposure to gold and increasing their bets on bitcoin.
JPMorgan also points to the growing acceptance of bitcoin as a strategic asset. Companies like MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) and Japan’s Metaplanet are actively building bitcoin reserves. On the government side, U.S. states like New Hampshire and Arizona are taking steps toward integrating digital assets into their financial systems.
New Hampshire now allows investors to hold 5% of their reserves in bitcoin and gold, while Arizona is creating a digital asset reserve using rewards from staking and airdrops – all without using taxpayer dollars.
The crypto sector is benefiting from major acquisitions and regulatory advances. Some recent examples:
These acquisitions strengthen the infrastructure and attract institutional capital, allowing bitcoin to further grow as a mature investment option.
1. Why does JPMorgan expect Bitcoin to outperform gold?
JPMorgan sees specific catalysts such as increased institutional adoption, ETF inflows and government reserves in bitcoin as factors that could outperform bitcoin's returns relative to gold by 2025.
2. What role do governments play in the growth of Bitcoin?
US states like New Hampshire and Arizona are taking steps to incorporate bitcoin into their financial policies, contributing to the institutionalization of crypto.
3. How do companies influence the bitcoin market?
Major companies like Strategy and Metaplanet are buying bitcoin as a strategic asset, which not only builds confidence in the market but also creates scarcity, which can drive up the price.