Bitcoin on the Verge of a Breakthrough. Meanwhile, Tensions with Iran Escalate.

The recent escalation in rhetoric between the US and Iran has gripped the markets. President Donald Trump has made clear what is at stake: an ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before 8:00 PM ET, with destruction looming if this does not happen. The consequences of this are immediately noticeable. For instance, the Bitcoin price dropped by 2% to $68.117. This highlights an alarming trend in which the crypto market is being negatively impacted by geopolitical unrest.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones futures fell by 0,4%, 0,6%, and 142 points, respectively, before the opening. In stark contrast, the price of crude oil rose; WTI passed $115 per barrel and Brent passed $110, rising by more than 70% over the past 30 days. This illustrates how a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which represents approximately one-fifth of global oil-producing capacity, affects not only oil prices but also broader financial markets.

A decrease of 2% in Bitcoin At first glance, it does not appear catastrophic, but the general trend is worrying. It is perhaps important to reflect on the art of technical signaling: since October of last year, we have seen three failed attempts where buyers tried to offset losses, without success. Each recovery attempt established a lower peak, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of this market.

During the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin closed with a loss of 22%, its worst performance since 2018. The decline was accelerated by factors such as war, customs duties, and a strict Federal Reserve, which together severely eroded risk appetite among investors. The current price around $68.000 is close to the lower boundary of the third pattern formation, where support can be found around $65.000. A continuation of the current trend could lead to $55.000 or even less.

The indicators point to bearish sentiment among Bitcoin traders. The average exponential moving averages (EMAs) are a crucial signal: the 50-day EMA lies below the 200-day EMA, representing a clear bearish trend. This phenomenon is also known as a 'death cross,' where rallies are usually sold, a fact that reinforces this specific price structure.

With an Average Directional Index (ADX) of 12,8, below the threshold of 25, the current market exhibits characteristics of a trendless framework. Although the bears appear to be in control on paper, we are seeing stagnation following the significant decline in February, which may indicate that stronger bearish momentum has not yet fully materialized.

For the optimists among Bitcoin investors, there is a glimmer of hope. A low ADX can indicate a possible trend reversal, but this requires confirmation from other indicators. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral at 47,9, which means there are no clear momentum gains in either direction. Furthermore, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows that price pressure is currently negative.

With three similar patterns and three failed attempts to rally, investors are justified in their pessimistic outlook. The continued decline in Bitcoin, below $65.000, confirms the bearish scenario and creates a route to $55.000 with little support in the meantime. Traders on the Myriad predict a 57% chance of a further decline to this price level.

The other side of the coin is that Bitcoin has dropped more than 45% from the peak of $126.000 in October. Some analysts view this period as a normal “bottoming phase” in a four-year crypto winter pattern. However, to signal an actual recovery, we need to see Bitcoin break above $75.000, the ADX rise above 20, and the 50-day EMA start moving toward the 200-day. Until these confirmations are visible, every bounce remains relatively weak and feels like another lower peak in the making.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Trump's ultimatum to Iran mean for the markets?
Trump's ultimatum has led to increased volatility on the financial markets. Investors are nervous, resulting in declines in crypto, such as Bitcoin. The geopolitical unrest can also affect demand for safe havens.

What does the technical picture of Bitcoin look like?
The technical analysis shows a bearish trend with lower highs and a death cross signal through the EMAs. Bitcoin has reached the support of $65.000, but if the price breaks, a drop to $55.000 could result.

What are the chances of a trend reversal in the Bitcoin market?
The current low ADX suggests that a trend reversal may be taking place, provided other indicators confirm it. However, there is currently no clear confirmation of an impending rise, leaving the short-term outlook gloomy.