Is Bitcoin Undervalued? Discover Its Price Recovery!

Bitcoin Undervalued: Potential Price Recovery in Sight?

2 March 2026 at 21: 11

Reading time: 2 minutes

Bitcoin is currently at a striking endpoint: it appears undervalued compared to gold and the global money supply. This seems to point to a potential price reversal, according to Samson Mow. CEO From the Bitcoin technology company Jan3, Mow argues that Bitcoin is between 24% and 66% below the expected trend based on its valuation relative to gold's market capitalization or the total global money supply. This brings us to a crucial observation: gold currently appears overvalued.

The closing of April gold futures at $5.247,90 and trading of tokenized gold, such as PAX Gold USD, at $5.404,14, point to an interesting market dynamic that investors should explore further.

Another important indicator Mow cites is Bitcoin's Z-score. This metric provides insight into how closely the Bitcoin price is moving relative to its historical averages. A Z-score of 0 indicates a price that is in line with the average, while a score above 0 means the price is above average. Currently, the Z-score of the BTC-to-gold ratio is around -1,24. This suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its average value.

Historically, when this Z-score falls below -2, Bitcoin has been able to achieve "major" price rallies. For reference, in November 2022, during the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, the score fell below -3; in the twelve months that followed, Bitcoin's price rose by over 150%. This kind of historical data provides important context for how investors should view the current market.

Mow's view is remarkably at odds with other analysts who predict a further price correction due to ongoing investor uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Current analyses suggest Bitcoin may be headed for a drop to $50.000. This is reminiscent of the bearish market of 2022, when Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its peak, reaching a low of around $60.000. The price currently stands at around $66.400, partly due to recent developments in the Middle East.

History teaches us that markets often react to external influences and sentiment shifts. In March 2020, during the Covid crisis, the Z-score dropped below -2, and Bitcoin reached a low of around $3.717, followed by an impressive rally of over 300% in the following year, peaking in November 2021 at around $69.000.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Z-score mean for Bitcoin investors?
The Z-score gives investors insight into Bitcoin's current price position relative to its historical averages. A low Z-score can indicate an undervalued market, presenting an opportunity for purchase.

Is the current geopolitical situation detrimental to the Bitcoin price?
Yes, geopolitical tensions can influence Bitcoin's price, as they often lead to uncertainty in the markets. Investors should consider these external factors in their strategies.

What can we learn from Bitcoin's previous price reactions?
Historical trends show that Bitcoin often experiences a significant price increase after a period of decline. This can be seen by investors as a potential opportunity to enter before prices rise significantly.

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