9 December 2025
In the current trading dynamics of Bitcoin (BTC) A striking discrepancy with macroeconomic trends is emerging. While global liquidity is experiencing a remarkable increase, BTC is lagging behind money supply growth and gold's record performance. Recent research from Bitwise suggests this gap could develop into a significant asymmetric opportunity for Bitcoin as we approach 2026.
The latest edition of the Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report suggests that the underlying situation for Bitcoin is much more bullish than current price action suggests. Global liquidity is now clearly shifting toward reflation: the United States is issuing nearly $1,9 trillion in Treasuries annually, former President Donald Trump announced $2.000 stimulus checks, and the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) program ended on December 1st.
In addition, Japan is launching a $110 billion stimulus package, Canada has restarted quantitative easing (QE), and China has agreed to a massive $1,4 trillion fiscal initiative. With more than 320 interest rate cuts globally in the past 24 months, global M2 (the total amount of money in circulation) has risen to a record high of $137 trillion.
In this context, Bitwise has highlighted one of the largest valuation gaps in Bitcoin's history. According to their cointegration model, BTC is currently approximately 66% below the global money supply, which equates to a model-indicated fair value of around $270.000. This disconnect translates into a hypothetical upside potential of approximately 194% if Bitcoin returns to its long-term liquidity anchor.
Essentially, Bitcoin is currently undervalued relative to the size of global monetary expansion. This is crucial, as BTC has historically been the most sensitive indicator of monetary dilution due to its absolute scarcity.
At the same time, gold has captured the majority of liquidity demand in 2025 and now exceeds the global money supply by about 75%. This creates what Bitwise describes as a strong argument for an impending rotation with potentially significant performance impacts for Bitcoin.
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, notes that Bitcoin's trend is currently lagging gold in terms of momentum and Sharpe ratio. This places both assets at "opposite poles." The Sharpe ratio quantifies the ratio of an asset's return to its volatility; gold is currently outperforming Bitcoin on a risk-adjusted basis. While there are no signs of a reversal yet, this increasing divergence represents a potentially attractive mean-reversion scenario.
Taking a broader perspective, Timmer points out that Bitcoin has consistently remained aligned with its long-term power-law adoption curve, despite the recent drop below $100.000. Bitcoin, which continues to develop with limited parabolic returns, is seen by Timmer as "gold's dynamic younger brother." It remains structurally strong, but with lower volatility.
Why is Bitcoin currently underperforming its potential value?
Bitcoin is currently undervalued relative to the growth of the global money supply, with a significant valuation gap implying its fair value would be around $270.000.
What does the rising gold price mean for Bitcoin?
The rising gold price indicates increased demand for safe haven assets, but it could also drain the liquidity that would otherwise flow into Bitcoin, creating opportunities for a future rotation back to BTC.
How does Bitcoin compare to traditional assets like gold in terms of risk and return?
Bitcoin offers the potential for higher long-term returns than gold despite its current lower risk-adjusted performance, but remains strongly linked to its adoption curve, which could support a positive outcome.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
XRP (XRP)
