7 December 2025
Although Bitcoin Even though Bitcoin briefly took a step back in late 2024, we still believe the true peak of this cycle is yet to come. We’ve been repeating that position for months, including when our strategy temporarily indicated an exit point. Now that Bitcoin is hitting another all-time high of $111.400, that belief seems stronger than ever.
Our view is based on a series of reliable indicators that have also been able to predict peaks and troughs well in the past. An example? In November 2022, these signals already told us that Bitcoin had bottomed out – and they were right.
Many analysts simply compare Bitcoin’s price movements with previous cycles, but we see that the dynamics have changed. Where previously the block reward halving event (the “halving”) was the main driver of explosive increases, new forces are now at work: institutional purchases via ETFs and seasoned investors (HODLers) who are not selling their coins. As a result, this cycle is running slightly differently – but the basic structure remains recognizable.
Our assessment? We are still two major price increases away from the absolute peak. Possible scenarios include a climb towards $125.000–$135.000, followed by a correction and then a final jump towards $150.000–$165.000.
More important than price targets, however, are the key indicators. They are currently not giving any signals that indicate an approaching top – and that is essential to keep realistic expectations. What do the key indicators say?
This indicator is designed to measure market overheating. During previous peaks it usually touched around 40. Now – despite the record price – it is only at 17. Only above 20 do we see signs of overheating.
The relatively low reading confirms that we are not yet at the peak. Even in the previous cycle, where external factors such as China's mining ban and hype around growth stocks played a role, the indicator remained valuable.
This measures the ratio of miner revenues to network computing power. While it previously peaked at around 5, it now stands at just 1,75 – even lower than during the ETF frenzy of early 2024. This suggests there is still plenty of room for growth.
At true peaks, the share of transaction fees in the total mining reward rises above 12%. Now? Barely above zero. That’s a clear sign that network activity has not yet peaked.
This measures how much money is flowing into exchanges. It currently stands at 13, while a value above 250 usually indicates an impending peak. The low value therefore suggests that we are not yet at the end of this cycle – but once momentum picks up, this number could quickly rise.
Although Bitcoin is now at an all-time high, it has reached that level gradually – without an explosive jump. This confirms our earlier suspicion: the top is not yet in sight.
There are more new wallets active now, but it is a steady growth. This means that the general public has not yet massively jumped on board. At the same time, long-term investors are slowly starting to sell their coins – normal behavior at this stage.
Bitcoin has proven in previous bull runs that it often makes a slow, steady climb before suddenly exploding. We’re seeing that pattern again now. There hasn’t been a massive influx of ETF money or retail investors yet – and that’s exactly the kind of calm before the storm we’ve seen before.
If external factors (such as ETF inflows or macroeconomic optimism) fail to materialize, Bitcoin could remain in a steady upward trend. This would require more patience from investors, but it doesn’t have to be a bad sign.
Absolutely. Technically, Bitcoin does not seem overheated at the moment. One of the leading models – the MLDP Z-Score model based on Metcalfe's Law – indicates that Bitcoin is still well below the 'overbought' level with a score of 1,96 (which is usually around 3 or even 4 in euphoric times). This means: there is still plenty of room for a rise towards $120.000 or higher.
Even now that Bitcoin is at its highest course has ever reached, we stand by our analysis: the top has not yet been reached. That Bitcoin has come this far without massive hype or news impact is actually a sign of strength.
Our main signal – the SOPR model – has recently turned positive again. This indicator normally only turns from negative to positive once per cycle. That makes this turn a major bullish signal.
In the coming weeks, we will continue to pay particular attention to our top indicators. For now, according to these signals, there is no reason to worry - rather, reason to remain alert for what may yet come.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
XRP (XRP)
