November 14 2025
The numerous claims on Crypto Twitter that “everyone Bitcoin The perceived “buying”—from prominent figures like Michael Saylor and BlackRock to entire countries and banks—is in stark contrast to reality. Despite this perceived accumulation, the price of Bitcoin has seen an unexpected decline, breaking through key support levels, especially as ETF flows have turned negative. This highlights a crucial point: in markets driven by liquidity and marginal flows, it's far more important to know who is actually buying and when, than who is saying they are.
Bitcoin's price fell below $106.400 amid negative ETF flows that occurred over four consecutive sessions. This reversal followed a period in which BlackRock's IBIT recorded significant redemptions totaling $714,8 million. This eliminated a key source of daily demand at a time when a closely watched cyclical point was broken. Farside Investors notes specific outflows of $88,1 million, $290,9 million, $149,3 million, and $186,5 million, which coincided with this technical breakthrough. These developments forced affected participants to redeem shares for underlying Bitcoin, which was then sold on the market.
This caused the net flow to reverse. When creations decrease and redemptions increase within the US spot ETF complex, the daily bid, which usually volatility absorbs, into a source of supply. Mid-October saw continued net outflows from digital asset funds as Bitcoin struggled to stay above $106.400. Although there were a few days of inflows at the end of October, the most recent trend shifted back to red, consistent with the aforementioned IBIT data.
The mechanical effect is crucial, as ETF flows are directly correlated with spot purchases or sales. This development coincides with the breaking of levels used by many traders to distinguish between a late-stage pullback and a trend restart.
The premium on three-month CME futures contracts declined to around 4 to 5 percent annualized in the second half of the year, reducing the incentive for carry trades. This, in turn, weakened institutional demand for basis during rallies. Moreover, funding on perpetual swaps has weakened or even gone negative at times, creating a situation that accelerates downward momentum as long positions derisk and liquidations cluster.
Under these circumstances, slow, planned spot accumulation by corporations or sovereign entities doesn't compensate for forced expropriations on leveraged products or redemptions of regulated products that translate directly into spot sales. The macroeconomic context also offers no relief. The US dollar index rose back to the 98-100 range in November after a weak first half, while the 10-year US yield remains stuck around 4,1 percent, constraining real interest rates. A stronger dollar and tight real interest rates compress global liquidity and weigh on long-term risks, and Bitcoin remains vulnerable to these short-term influences. When flows are roughly flat, the dollar is often the determining factor in whether a rally sustains or fades.
Furthermore, concerns remain surrounding supply. The Mt. Gox restructuring has been extended again until October 31, 2026, after partial distributions earlier this year, which poses a continuing risk, even if actual sales are spread out over time. Periodic custodian updates and wallet movements have repeatedly put pressure on risk appetite for rebounds. Miners are another factor in this story.
The post-halving economy has also kept the hash price near cyclical lows compared to its spring peak. This creates ongoing incentives for reserve monetization on stressed days, which can coincide with weak funding and thus add procyclical pressure.
I recently mentioned $126.000 as the cyclical peak and $106.400 as the pivot point between bull and bear. The most recent price break below that pivot point stems from the ETF bid turning into net selling, while the base remained comfortable and funding cooled. Interestingly, popular on-chain and cycle monitors, such as the 2-Year MA Multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, and RHODL, haven't reached the euphoria we saw earlier in this cycle, even near the peaks. Measurements are already starting to shift towards distribution and mean rebalancing now that the flow support has disappeared.
This could indicate that the bull market in this cycle will extend, or it could represent a decline in returns compared to previous cycle transitions. However, these analytical tools are not standalone time indicators. When they coincide with daily flow contagions and macro rigidity, traders tend to withdraw liquidity, amplifying the impact of incremental selling.
Purchases by nations are episodic and relatively small compared to daily turnover, and corporate treasuries operate on their own timelines. Banks often facilitate client activities instead of taking on daily balance sheet risk. None of these parties compensates for a week in which issuers who normally create shares instead redeem, financing slips or goes below zero, and the dollar hardens. In such a mix, the marginal seller reigns supreme.
The short-term path depends on whether spot creations reappear and the basis expands. A sustained series of net outflows from the largest U.S. spot ETFs, particularly IBIT and FBTC, while the CME basis is around or below 5 percent per annum and funding is flat to negative, would keep the market in a distribution phase. In this scenario, a failure to reclaim $106.400 would mean $100.000 becomes the battleground and opens a path to the upper $90.000 range, especially if the macro remains tight.
A more neutral trajectory, with variable but smaller flows, a base stabilizing in the 5-7 percent zone, and a dollar hovering around 97-100, suggests a "digestion" phase between $100.000 and $106.000 as liquidity recovers. The upside scenario calls for a multi-day return with net creation in the $300 million to $800 million range within the complex, with an emphasis on gains above 8 to 10 percent and a weaker dollar. This mix would allow a return to $110.000 to $115.000 and reopen the discussion surrounding the cycle peak.
An effective way to monitor the situation is to look at daily issuer-level flows and combine them with derivatives and macroeconomic factors.
Several indicators provide a clear understanding of the current market. First, ETF flows indicate: persistent multi-day creations from major providers like BlackRock's IBIT or Fidelity's FBTC signal renewed demand. Conversely, persistent redemptions or flat prints confirm that bids have turned into supplies. Second, fund flows are crucial: broad inflows into digital asset funds, led primarily by Bitcoin, indicate an institutional rotation back to risk. Persistent outflows or concentration in defensive alt products point to a withdrawal of capital.
Additionally, leverage conditions offer insight: a rising base (above 7-8% per year) and positive, stable funding suggest an appetite for directional risk, typically in active bull phases. Conversely, a flat or negative setup implies deleveraging and distribution. Macro liquidity, such as DXY and the 10-year yield, is also important: a weaker dollar (DXY < 97) and softening yields open liquidity channels that support historically bullish momentum. Finally, mining supply pressure, such as hash price trends, can indicate whether the market is comfortably absorbing new supply or whether there are stress points within upward trends.
Over the past four trading days, the spot ETF bid has turned into a persistent net seller, precisely when Bitcoin lost its pivot. With a subdued CME base and soft funding, the marginal price was driven by risk reduction rather than dip buying. A stronger USD and stiff real interest rates have completed a flow-driven breakout, which doesn't reflect long-term adoption. Until daily creation returns and $106.400 is regained, we remain in a distribution and rework phase within the broader cycle.
Why does it look so bleak for Bitcoin despite the number of purchases?
The current situation is being driven by marginal sellers, who are dominating in a week where ETF supply is falling and demand is declining.
What are the indicators of a continuing bull market?
The combination of ETF flows, fund flows, leverage conditions, and macroeconomic elements forms a comprehensive picture of market dynamics and can help predict whether the bull market can continue or not.
When can we expect a potential rebound?
A return to multi-day net creations in the $300 million to $800 million range, combined with improved macro conditions, would be a key indicator of a potential price rebound and recovery to higher levels.
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