Bitcoin Could Drop to $29.000: Market Analyst Predicts Possible Downward Trend

The Bitcoin price recently surpassed $69.000, following a notable drop the previous week. While the trend appears to be reversing, a market analyst warns that Bitcoin (BTC) may once again face sharp price losses. After previously predicting a drop from above $100.000, the analyst now expects a possible pullback to $29.000, which could indicate the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin.

Market expert LavaXBT has outlined two scenarios for Bitcoin's future movement. However, the analyst leans towards a bearish perspective, predicting that BTC could potentially fall again and reach levels not seen in years. In his macro update on X, he predicts that Bitcoin could first drop back to $45.000 before potentially crashing to a price floor around $29.000, as illustrated on his chart.

LavaXBT notes that his earlier forecast for the first quarter of 2026 did not materialize as expected, although most technical indicators initially appeared to be in line. He attributes this deviation to a lack of trading volume and persistent geopolitical tensions affecting the market. Recent volatility in financial markets has increased as fear among investors rises in light of the US-Iran war. While Bitcoin appears resilient, the conflict and declining confidence could exert significant pressure on the price.

Given the analyst's bearish outlook, he plans to short BTC if the price rises back to $73.000, $78.000, or possibly $80.000. He emphasizes that current market conditions are not ideal for trading, given Bitcoin's low volume and the unpredictability of the price action.

Moreover, LavaXBT believes that a decline in the Bitcoin price will also have consequences for the broader altcoin market. He predicts that if BTC indeed falls back to $29.000, altcoins will likely decline even more sharply. Many altcoins could return to the price levels of their 2022 crash or even lower. Therefore, he warns against buying altcoins indiscriminately, but advises investors to wait until Bitcoin has reached strong support levels before proceeding to purchase altcoins. Patience is crucial, according to the analyst; he intends to wait and focus on better opportunities while Bitcoin navigates the current bear market.

While predicting the chance of a drop to $29.000, which entails a decline of more than 58% below the current price of over $69.000, LavaXBT has also outlined the potential for a strong rise. In his price chart, he notes that the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new high in this cycle will increase once it recaptures the swing high around $93.000. Once Bitcoin overcomes this resistance, it is crucial for the cryptocurrency to close above $120.000 to confirm the upward trend and establish higher peaks. In that case, he believes the target for the next macro wave lies around $160.000, which would surpass Bitcoin's current record of $126.000 by approximately 27%.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the short-term expectations for Bitcoin?
The outlook for Bitcoin is currently bearish, with predictions pointing to a possible pullback to $29.000. This is driven by low trading volume and negative geopolitical influences.

How does the current geopolitical situation affect the crypto market?
Increasing tensions in the world, such as the conflict between the US and Iran, create an uncertain environment. This leads to fear among investors, which increases market volatility and puts pressure on assets such as Bitcoin.

What should an investor consider when trading altcoins at this moment?
Investors are advised to be patient and wait for strong support levels for Bitcoin before buying altcoins. It is essential to trade strategically in the current bear market and not invest impulsively.