7 December 2025
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already outpaced gold ETFs in their early growth, with expected inflows of $100 billion per year by 2027. Publicly listed companies and governments currently own nearly 1,7 million BTC, indicating growing long-term confidence in the digital asset. Bitwise predicts that inflows to Bitcoin will reach $2025 billion by 120 and $300 billion by 2026.
Demand for Bitcoin (BTC) is rising among a wide range of investors, including publicly traded companies that hold BTC treasuries, sovereign wealth funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and national governments. According to Bitwise, a company specializing in crypto index funds, inflows into Bitcoin could reach $2025 billion by the end of 120, with an additional $300 billion expected in 2026.
In a recent report, “Forecasting Institutional Flows to Bitcoin in 2025/2026,” Bitwise reports that US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $2024 billion in 36,2, outpacing the early successes of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Within 12 months, Bitcoin ETFs reached $125 billion in assets under management (AUM), twenty times faster than GLD, indicating that Bitcoin is set to perform significantly, with inflows potentially climbing to $100 billion annually by 2027.
Despite this surge, $2024 billion in Bitcoin demand remained sidelined in 35 due to risk-averse compliance policies at large firms such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, which together manage $60 trillion in client assets. These firms require multi-year track records, but the growing legitimacy of Bitcoin ETFs is expected to provide an opening for this flow of capital.
Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer has noted that Bitcoin is trading above $100.000, giving it the potential to overtake gold as a store of value. His analysis also highlights the recent convergence of Bitcoin and gold’s Sharpe ratios, suggesting that both assets are becoming increasingly similar in terms of risk-adjusted returns.
In addition to ETFs and asset managers, Bitcoin’s appeal as a reserve asset is growing among the public and private sectors, as well as sovereign nations. Companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets currently hold approximately 1.146.128 BTC, worth $125 billion, which represents 5,8% of the total BTC supply.
Sovereign nations collectively own 529.705 BTC ($57,8 billion), with the United States (207.189 BTC), China (194.000 BTC), and the United Kingdom (61.000 BTC) being the largest holders.
Bitwise's Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon, UXTO research lead Guillaume Girard and research analyst Will Owens expect continued asset allocation to BTC and outline several scenarios: bear, base and bull case.
In the bear scenario, a reallocation of just 1% of gold reserves by nations could lead to $32,3 billion in inflows (323.000 BTC or 1,54% of supply). Several US states created 10% BTC reserves, adding $6,5 billion, and asset management platforms allocated 0,1% of their assets ($60 billion). Public companies contributed another $58,9 billion, bringing total inflows to over $150 billion.
The base scenario sees a 5% reallocation by nations, generating $161,7 billion (1.617.000 BTC or 7,7% of supply). U.S. states increase their adoption to 30% ($19,6 billion), while asset management platforms allocate 0,5% ($300 billion), and public companies double their holdings to $117,8 billion. This scenario aligns with Bitwise’s forecast of $120 billion in 2025 and $300 billion in 2026, capturing 20,32% of Bitcoin supply.
In the bull scenario, a 10% reallocation from gold to Bitcoin would lead to $323,4 billion in inflows (3.234.000 BTC or 15,38% of supply). US state adoption rises to 70% ($45,8 billion), asset platforms allocate 1% ($600 billion), and public companies quadruple their holdings to $235,6 billion. In total, these inflows could exceed $426,9 billion, absorbing 4.269.000 BTC.
The growth in interest in BTC from institutional investors and governments underscores growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. With 94,6% of the total supply already mined (19.868.987 BTC as of May 2025), Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation and the devaluation of fiat currencies.
Why are Bitcoin ETFs so important for investors?
Bitcoin ETFs offer investors the ability to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to purchase or manage it themselves, increasing Bitcoin's accessibility and legitimacy.
How do Bitcoin's returns compare to gold?
Recent research points to a convergence of the Sharpe ratios of both Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that both assets offer similar risk-adjusted returns, but Bitcoin shows significantly higher growth potential.
What does the growing interest of states and companies in Bitcoin mean?
The increased accumulation of Bitcoin by states and corporations points to growing confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value, potentially stabilizing the currency and strengthening its role as an alternative to traditional assets.
In conclusion, the dynamic developments surrounding Bitcoin point to a promising future for this digital asset. The increasing acceptance by institutional investors and governments could lead to a significant shift in the value and function of Bitcoin within the global financial markets.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
XRP (XRP)
