November 18 2025
Bitcoin has recovered from a low of just above $104.000 and is now trading around that level again. While this seems positive at first glance, the short-term picture remains bleak, according to CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
The rally was accompanied by positive signals in US stock futures, which temporarily supported the market. However, technical analysis suggests that this recovery is probably just a classic “breakdown and retest” move.
Bitcoin broke out of a so-called head and shoulders pattern earlier this week, which typically signals a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The current course Around $104.000 now forms the “neckline” — the breakpoint where many early sellers take profits and new short positions emerge.
This behavior is consistent with prospect theory within behavioral analysis, where early profit takers and late-entering sellers work together to create temporary upswings followed by further declines.
As long as the price remains below $107.000, the bearish scenario remains intact. A break above that level would invalidate the negative pattern and refocus on record highs. On the downside, the first support lies at $100.000 and below that at $95.500 — calculated as the height of the head and shoulders pattern from the breakout point.
What does Bitcoin's current price recovery mean?
The recovery towards $104.000 appears technical in nature and is likely part of a “retest” after a downward breakout from a head and shoulders pattern.
Where are the key levels to watch?
On the downside, $100.000 and $95.500 are important support levels. An upside break above $107.000 is needed to negate the bearish scenario.
Is this the start of a new bull market?
No, according to technical analysis there is no structural trend reversal yet. The current movement is probably temporary and could be followed by further declines.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
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