15 Januari 2026
The American Bitcoin EFTs are experiencing a remarkable trend: in three consecutive trading sessions, they have experienced redemptions of over $1 billion. This sharp reversal is all the more surprising given the strong start to the year. During the first two trading days of the year, the twelve Bitcoin EFT products collectively attracted nearly $1,2 billion in inflows. However, these strong inflows have given way to significant outflows. Between January 6th and 8th, these funds reported combined losses of $243,2 million, $486,1 million, and $398,8 million, respectively.
The total blood draw over these three days amounts to approximately $1,13 billion, effectively leaving the month's inflows at a negligible positive balance of around $40 million. This pattern is also reflected in Bitcoin's price action, with the popular cryptocurrency trading above $94.000 on January 8th, only to test support below $90.000.
The composition of this selling suggests that this isn't a retail panic, but rather a structural de-risking by larger players using the most liquid instruments. On the heaviest selling days, exits were primarily led by the sector's big names, such as BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. However, it's crucial not to focus solely on daily ETF activity, as this can miss a broader signal. CryptoQuant analysis suggests that trying to time the market based on these movements appears to be increasingly ineffective.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju emphasizes that capital inflows into the broader Bitcoin network have declined sharply and that liquidity channels have become so diverse that no single metric can tell the full story. He points out that the market has evolved beyond the simple "whoa-retail" dump cycles of previous periods. With the presence of massive institutional holders with undefined time horizons, such as MicroStrategy with a supply of 673.000 BTC, a bottom has formed that didn't exist in previous bear markets. Since these entities are unlikely to liquidate, the chance of a catastrophic 50% crash from all-time highs is significantly reduced.
Despite this larger bottom, internal momentum indicators may signal doubts. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the "apparent demand" for Bitcoin has fallen into negative territory on a 30-day basis, suggesting that new capital absorption isn't keeping pace with effective demand. This shift mirrors a familiar pattern in on-chain data: long-term dormant coins reenter circulation just as demand begins to weaken. The contrast is clear when comparing the price action with the 30-day change in demand.
In previous cycles, sustained positive demand typically led to strong price increases, but currently the price is stabilizing while demand remains structurally weak. This suggests that recent increases are likely driven by short-term positions rather than sustained purchases of the physical asset. Without a clear recovery in demand on the blockchain, further price increases could be undermined by selling pressure from short-term holders and previously dormant inventory reentering the market. This aligns with the signals from the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key measure of network profitability, which has since begun declining. The declining MVRV indicates that unrealized profits within the network are no longer accruing at the same pace as during the peaks of the bull market.
At the same time, this stagnation in crypto demand isn't happening in isolation; it's occurring alongside a historic rally in gold and the broader macroeconomic environment. Data from The Kobeissi Letter points to a dramatic shift in the global monetary order. The US dollar's share of global currency reserves has fallen to around 40%, its lowest level in two decades.
Gold, on the other hand, has seen a 28% increase in reserves, the highest level since the early 90s. This means gold now represents a larger share of global foreign exchange reserves than the euro, yen, and British pound combined. It's important to note that this shift isn't retail hype, but a structural change as central banks diversify away from the dollar and accumulate gold. This has led to a 65% rise in gold prices by 2025—the largest annual increase since 1979—while the US dollar index has seen its worst performance in eight years.
Despite these trends, recent dollar strength complicates the situation. The dollar reached a monthly high this week, coinciding with indications of a resilient US labor report. The implications of this data are significant: a stronger-than-expected jobs report would likely reinforce the recent dollar's strength and further push back expectations for rate cuts, with negative consequences for both gold and Bitcoin. On the other hand, a weak report could fuel the liquidity expectations that fueled this year's early rally.
For now, the $1 billion outflow peak serves as a reality check. The ETF ecosystem is mature, but that maturity has led to correlation instead of decoupling. With apparent negative demand and global capital flows returning to physical safe havens, Bitcoin appears poised for a period of stagnation, caught between a high institutional floor and a ceiling of macro indifference.
What are the recent trends in the Bitcoin ETF market?
US Bitcoin ETFs have seen three consecutive sessions of heavy redemptions, with outflows totaling around $1,13 billion, suggesting a shift in demand for the product.
What does the drop in Bitcoin demand mean for price developments?
The decline in demand suggests that recent price increases are unsustainable and that pressure may arise as short-term holders start selling. This points to a prolonged period of stagnation rather than a sharp price increase.
What role does the macroeconomic environment play in the current situation?
The stagnation in the crypto market coincides with the rise of gold and a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves, demonstrating a shift in capital toward physical assets. This negatively impacts Bitcoin demand and price trends.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
XRP (XRP)
