Bitcoin & Ethereum: trends, risks and market analysis

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Analysis of Trend Reversals and Potential Risks

9 July 2026 on 08: 48

Reading time: 3 minutes

Bitcoin suffered a decline of 2,89% this week and closed at $61.749. Cherished hopes of breaking through the resistance level between $64.000 and $65.000 were dashed. This zone is crucial; it is the boundary the bulls (buyers) must recapture to reverse the short-term trend. Nevertheless, despite the current situation, there is a glimmer of hope. Bitcoin recently touched a 21-month low of $58.035 before recovering.

Crypto market indices are in a state of extreme fear, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at a worrying 23. This reflects not only short-term panic but also a broader reflection of confidence in the sector. The outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs (investment funds that invest directly in Bitcoin) had piled up to as much as $2,7 billion over the past ten days.

Historically, the gloomiest periods in the crypto market have often been preceded by recovery, during which market sentiment is extremely negative for extended periods. The current bear market is reminiscent of previous cycles where sharp declines paved the way for a subsequent rise, particularly before a halving, which has historically been a catalyst for price increases. This is currently about 21 months away.

Several technical indicators suggest different scenarios. The Bitcoin price opened the week at $63.587, but after a brief peak, it remained below the aforementioned resistance level. The moderate outcomes reduce the likelihood of an immediate upward movement, despite the fact that the low at $58.035 recently provided some support.

The Fibonacci retracement analysis places the levels of $73.245 and $70.284 as key areas of activity in the overall decline since the peak above $82.000. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures the strength of a trend, stands at 30.7, indicating an active downtrend. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.8, quite close to the area considered 'oversold'.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin is grappling with a potential technical vulnerability, with a possible 'death cross' approaching, which would indicate a significant deterioration in market dynamics. So far, the exponentially moving averages are still playing bullishly, but the potential for a trend reversal remains.

Ethereum is currently trading around $1.729,7 and has experienced a decline of 3,06%. The most concerning aspect is that Ethereum has now confirmed a weekly death cross; the 50-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) has dropped below the 200-week EMA. This marks a turning point on the long-term front.

The implication of this technical change is telling. In recent weeks, Ethereum has performed particularly poorly, with a decline of more than 30% over the past year. The expectation is that Ethereum could now slide further, with a loss forecast of around $1.500 before there is room for recovery.

The RSI for Ethereum also reflects a negative trend, with a value of 36,9, leading to the conclusion that selling pressure will persist for the time being. Sentiment in markets such as Myriad, which reflect real capital rather than opinions, is bearish, with players estimating a 72% chance that Ethereum will reach $1.500 before crossing the $3.000 mark again.

Historically, death crosses in Ethereum have often been seen at the end of bear markets. This could imply that we are currently in a phase where the chance of a drop to a new low is real, but it could also be a deliberate indication that these price levels represent an attractive entry point for persistent buyers.

Frequently Asked Questions

How safe are investments in Bitcoin currently?
Although there are risks, there are also signs of potential accumulation by long-term holders. This provides moderate grounds for optimism, but caution remains warranted.

What does the death cross mean for Ethereum?
The death cross indicates a significant shift towards bearish sentiment. This may point to continued downward pressure and possibly further price declines in the future.

How can ETF inflows and the Fear & Greed Index influence the market?
Historically, large inflows into ETFs have often led to price increases, and extreme fear can provide contrarian signals, pointing to potential buying opportunities.

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