Bitcoin's recent price performance is worrying for investors and analysts. On November 3rd, the price fell below $106.505,22, a 3,6% drop in 24 hours, as the rising value of the US dollar and continued outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) put pressure on the entire crypto market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is now trading below $104.000, a significant level not seen since June.
Ethereum has been in a similar downtrend and is now trading around $3.490, down 9%. Solana undergoes a steeper drop of 13% to $159, while other well-known cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin en BNB ook dubbelcijfersverlies verzeichnen.
The DXY dollar index, a key measure of the dollar's value against other currencies, is currently climbing to 99,886, up 0,2% and near a three-month high. The dollar's strength has historically had a negative impact on Bitcoin, given that cryptocurrencies function as non-yielding alternative assets. When the dollar appreciates, investors shift their capital into dollar-denominated instruments that offer positive real returns. This reduces demand for Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Moreover, traders have been defensive in anticipation of key US economic data. The Federal Reserve took a noticeably hawkish (tight monetary policy) stance in its latest policy statement, adding to the uncertainty. Several key reports are being released this week, including ISM manufacturing data on November 3 and the services PMI and ADP jobs on November 5. The week concludes with the nonfarm payrolls report on November 7, often considered a key indicator of the labor market. Consumer confidence data from the University of Michigan, due out the same day, will also be crucial for expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy and the direction of the dollar.
A further problem is the net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded a cumulative loss of $1,15 billion in October. These outflows have increased selling pressure and undermined the price support structure that previously absorbed sales by crypto-native participants during previous market corrections. ETF flows often act as demand stabilizers, and their decline leaves significant vulnerability.
Derivative liquidations further exacerbated the decline. CoinGlass data shows that nearly $1,15 billion in long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, of which approximately $330 million was concentrated in Ethereum futures, after ETH breached the $3.900 threshold. Liquidations occur when leveraged traders automatically close their positions, often resulting in forced sales that amplify downward momentum.
The combination of macroeconomic headwinds, dollar strength due to the Fed's hawkish policy, and market pressure from ETF outflows and derivatives liquidations paints a challenging picture.
This week's economic data release will play a crucial role in whether the dollar can maintain its recent strength. A reversal in the DXY could ease the pressure on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency markets. Until then, the lack of ETF inflows and the aftermath of liquidated positions pose a risk for further volatility in digital assets.
What are the key factors behind Bitcoin's recent decline?
Bitcoin's recent decline has been driven by a strong dollar, continued outflows from crypto ETFs, and liquidations of leveraged positions in the derivatives market.
How does the dollar affect Bitcoin demand?
When the dollar appreciates, investors shift their funds into dollar-based assets with positive real returns, leading to lower demand for Bitcoin and other digital assets.
What can we expect from the crypto market in the coming weeks?
The results of the US economic reports will be crucial. A negative development for the dollar could ease the pressure on the crypto market, while continued dollar strength could herald a further decline in digital assets.