Bitcoin Derivatives: Signals for a Possible Rally

Bitcoin Derivatives Withstand Bear Market: Signals Point to Possible Rally

7 July 2026 on 07: 04

Reading time: 3 minutes

Bitcoin has recovered remarkably quickly from the recent sell-off to $61.300, which followed the announcement of Strategy's Bitcoin sale. Although this event has negatively impacted sentiment among traders, the additional cash position of $216 million offers some reassurance regarding the company's ability to pay dividends and address debt. This raises the question of whether the Bitcoin pullback indicates a stabilization within the market, with the bulls back in power.

The annual funding ratio of Bitcoin perpetual futures rose to 9% on Monday. This indicates a balanced demand between bullish (optimistic) and bearish (pessimistic) positions, despite the fact that conviction in the market is still hard to find. This contrasts with the bearish momentum of Saturday, when funding ratios were negative. Unlike the futures market, however, Bitcoin options showed some signs of stress on Monday.

The premium for put options (sell options) at Deribit exceeded that of call options (buy options) on Monday. This marked a reversal of trend compared to Thursday and Friday. Typically, a period of stress can push the ratio above 2, keeping the current ratio of 1,15 on the low side of the neutral range. Despite the market rollercoaster, both Bitcoin futures and options appear to have shown resilience, although the bounce to $63.500 did not bring sufficient positive sentiment for the bulls.

Bitcoin bears appear to have underestimated the significance of the $223 million net influence in US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Friday. This marked the first time in 10 consecutive weeks that there was an inflow. The record spikes of $4,51 billion in June had an adverse effect on trader sentiment.

This selling pressure will eventually subside, and a potential turnaround in ETF flows could be sufficient to fuel optimism in the Bitcoin derivatives markets. Part of the recent pessimistic outlook can be attributed to the significant decline in Strategy's Preferred Perpetual Equity Stretch (STRC US), which offers investors an attractive 12% yield. However, new issues can only take place at the fixed price of $100, leaving the company with fewer instruments currently available to support the dividend payout.

Despite its low debt ratio of 8%, the bears are grappling with Strategy's actual losses of $8 billion on its Bitcoin purchases. The bulls' hopes depend heavily on the confidence of long-term holders and on-chain data indicating seller exhaustion, which in turn reinforces the support level at $60.000. Bitcoin transfers from long-term holders to exchanges have further declined to an average of 4.130. BTC per day, compared to 8.040 BTC a week ago. However, this trend cannot continue without a significant inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which stands in the way of possible sustainable bullish momentum.

Currently, Strategy's large unrealized losses and uncertainty in the Bitcoin derivatives market point to continued pressure from the bears.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the implications of the recent ETF inflow for the Bitcoin market?
The recent inflow into Bitcoin ETFs may indicate renewed confidence among investors, which could potentially reduce selling pressure and create positive momentum within the market.

How do on-chain metrics influence Bitcoin's current price movement?
On-chain metrics show that seller volume is decreasing, suggesting there is potential support around $60.000, which can be seen as an opportunity for investors to enter.

What can we expect from the Bitcoin derivatives markets in the coming weeks?
If inflows into ETFs continue and confidence among long-term holders remains, this could lead to a shift towards bullish sentiment, increasing the likelihood of a rally towards $65.000.

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