Analysis: Bitcoin's Downturn – Sentiment-Driven or Structural Problem?

Bitcoin Bitcoin (BTC) continued its decline, falling to $100.800 on Tuesday, losing more than 10% this week. This movement mirrors the 1,67% drop in the Nasdaq 100 futures, as risky assets came under pressure. Notably, historical data shows that when the Nasdaq falls more than 1,5% in a single day, Bitcoin has a 75% chance of a negative return, with an average decline of 2,4%. Despite these figures, market analysis suggests that the weakness in Bitcoin prices is not entirely due to fundamental flaws. Financial conditions remain accommodative, and capital markets have recently reached record highs.

"Bitcoin is underpriced relative to the macroeconomic context," notes the Ecoinometrics analyst. This statement emphasizes the fact that the current dip appears to be more sentiment-driven than structural. While there are some cool signals, such as the decline in demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, we should not forget that the overall net inflow balance remains positive, which underscores the resilience of long-term demand for Bitcoin. BTC demonstrates.

ETF flows and their implications

Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have declined significantly since early October. In the first two weeks of Q4, over $5 billion in net inflows were observed, but in the subsequent four weeks, there were approximately $1,5 billion in withdrawals. This could indicate declining demand, but the positive net inflows emphasize that investors are still interested in BTC exposure.

A look at on-chain metrics offers additional perspective. Selling pressure has decreased from $835 million to $469 million compared to the previous week, while long-term accumulation remains strong. Bitcoin whales have sent approximately 4.900 BTC to exchanges over the past week, indicating cautious repositioning rather than panic. Exchange reserves have fallen to 2,85 million BTC, reinforcing the broader accumulation trend, even as BTC trades below its 200-day moving average of $108.000 and the short-term holders' cost basis of $113.000.

A Possible Turning Point with Stablecoins

CryptoQuant's analysis shows that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has fallen back to the 13-14 range, a level that marked a turning point earlier this year before Bitcoin's further rise. Historically, the SSR at this level often coincides with rising stablecoin balances, indicating growing "buying power" on the sidelines. With Bitcoin currently trading at $101.800, the low SSR suggests a quiet buildup of stablecoin liquidity is once again underway, and this could set the stage for a relief rally or a final bullish phase of this cycle.

It should be noted, however, that any subsequent rebound in the SSR appears weaker, suggesting that while a new upward phase may be imminent, the underlying liquidity dynamics may be losing steam.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the key factors behind Bitcoin's recent price drop?
Bitcoin's recent price decline is primarily due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and market sentiment. Its correlation with the Nasdaq is indicative of broader market pressure, but fundamentally, Bitcoin still appears underpriced.

What can we expect from the inflow into Bitcoin ETFs?
While a decline in inflows is observed, the net inflow balance remains positive. This suggests that long-term investor demand for Bitcoin remains intact, despite the recent outflows.

What role do stablecoins play in current market conditions?
Stablecoins play a crucial role as indicators of liquidity and potential buying behavior on the sidelines. The low Stablecoin Supply Ratio suggests that more buying power may be available, potentially leading to a future rally in Bitcoin prices.