Investors on Alert: Is Bitcoin on the Brink of Recovery or Further Devaluation?

Bitcoin bevindt zich momenteel op een kritisch keerpunt, waarbij handelaren ofwel anticiperen op een volledige capitulatie (het moment waarop investeerders massaal hun posities verkopen) of geloven dat we ons aan het begin van een duurzame bodemvorming bevinden. Maartunn, analist bij CryptoQuant, wijst in een recent videoverslag op data die pleit voor dat laatste scenario. Hij onderstreept echter dat een mogelijke bodem waarschijnlijk meer een geleidelijk proces zal zijn dan een abrupt herstel.

Has Bitcoin Bottomed Out?

With the current trading price roughly 50% below its record high, the price drop appears dramatic at first glance. However, compared to previous bear markets, where declines of over 70% were common, it is relatively limited, Maartunn noted. The crucial question is not whether the market can fall further, but whether the factors that typically precede a reversal are already beginning to manifest themselves.

First, Maartunn points to "structural selling pressure" associated with exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He notes that new spot ETFs have experienced a drop of as much as $8,2 billion from their peak, the largest drop ever. This has led to persistent selling pressure, with the current price some 17% lower than the average ETF holder's purchase price, pushing a significant portion of these investors into the red and potentially prompting them to reduce their exposure.

Maartunn links the selling pressure to a mechanical reset in the derivatives market. Open interest (the total value of outstanding derivatives contracts) has more than halved, from $45,5 billion to $21,7 billion, a 27% decline in the past week alone. This points to broader deleveraging, which is temporarily painful, but historically correlated with bottoming conditions.

He notes that while this certainly causes discomfort for those who have been transferred, removing this speculative pressure is a necessary step to create a sustainable market floor. It signals a major cleanup of speculative surpluses.

As he considers the impact of the current downturn, Maartunn focuses on short-term holders. The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realizable Value for Short-Term Holders) currently stands at 0,72, suggesting the average short-term holder is losing approximately 28%. This isn't just a routine metric; it's the lowest value since the market downturn in July 2022, a level that historically coincides with periods of peak financial pain.

Support levels and historical comparisons

According to Maartunn, this level of financial pressure is unusual and typically occurs during significant moments of capitulation. The numbers could still fall further, but history shows us that when such levels are reached, the risk-reward profile for Bitcoin becomes significantly more attractive.

Furthermore, the current market structure can be seen as a retest of a key support cluster. This point, where the previous cycle's record high meets the upper edge of an older trading range, has often played a crucial role in previous cycles. Regarding time parameters, Maartunn draws a connection with previous bear market cycles, which suggest we are in a broad period of bottoming between June and December 2026, with the last two cycles most concentrated between September and November.

Ultimately, it's important to note that a bottom is rarely a one-time event. The combination of ETF-driven selling pressure, leverage unwinding, pain among short-term holders, and the retesting of key levels can all be part of a prolonged bottoming process, with investor sentiment remaining the crucial indicator. Maartunn argues that a true market bottom is often characterized by apathy: when social media engagement declines, market vigilance is at a minimum, and interest in Bitcoin appears to have vanished. This is typically when the biggest financial opportunities present themselves.

In summary, while the data may be starting to shift towards signals pointing to an early bottom formation, confirmatory elements, particularly regarding flows and sentiment, may come in phases, with additional volatility and further stress tests on the way.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bitcoin's current decline unusual?
Not if we consider the context of previous bear markets. A 50% drop is relatively less severe than previous losses of over 70%. It's the combination of factors that is crucial.

What can we expect from market sentiment?
Historically, a true bottom formation is accompanied by apathy. So, if interest and activity decline, it could signal an upcoming opportunity for investors.

How do ETFs impact the market?
The current structural selling pressure on spot ETFs is leading to persistent negative price pressure. This can present both a risk and an opportunity for investors, depending on future trends.