2026 Economic Outlook: AI Continues to Lead Growth

Looking ahead to 2026, Bank of America paints an optimistic picture of global growth, largely driven by investments in artificial intelligence (AI). However, the bank warns of increasing volatility As investors realize the far-reaching economic implications of this technology, the bank's global research teams predict that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2,4% annually through the end of 2026. This forecast exceeds consensus, driven by business investment, fiscal stimulus, and recent interest rate cuts. China also projects a positive outlook, with growth of 4,7% in 2026 and 4,5% in 2027, further strengthening the global economy's dynamism.

The most significant factor behind these predictions is the emerging role of artificial intelligence. The explosion of AI investment is already having a positive impact on GDP, and so far, the bank has seen no indication of a bubble forming. Candace Browning, head of global research at BofA, argues that concerns about an impending AI bubble are overblown. The report indicates that AI-related capital spending will increase even further next year, with some anticipating a potential new investment cycle.

By 2025, Bitcoin miners will have benefited from the AI ​​hype. The rising demand for powerful computers has increased the value of their infrastructure. Several publicly traded mining divisions, such as IREN and Cipher Mining, have managed to generate revenue this year not only from mining but also from leasing data center capacity to AI companies. This is remarkable, considering that Bitcoin has not managed to make a significant breakthrough this year and is still trading around $90.000.

The shift from a consumption-driven growth model to one driven by capital expenditures, infrastructure, and productivity has broader implications. This could impact not only traditional stock markets but also create new opportunities within digital infrastructure, blockchain, and data monetization—areas crucial to many crypto projects.

Future Volatility and Economic Complexity

Nevertheless, the bank predicts turbulent times. As investors and policymakers better understand how AI affects inflation, labor markets, and supply chains, financial markets could experience sharp fluctuations. The ongoing "K-shaped" recovery (where some sectors thrive while others lag) adds another layer of complexity to this outlook. If AI increases productivity in the technology and financial sectors, sluggish sectors could be left behind, leading to an economy that is more difficult to manage with traditional means. This increases the risk of mispricing and sudden asset revaluations.

Emerging markets could benefit in the short term, especially if the US dollar weakens and oil prices remain low. Bank of America notes that these regions are expected to outperform in 2026, thanks in part to global monetary easing. For some developing countries that have opted for digital systems over traditional infrastructure, the growing demand for AI could offer new opportunities for alternative technologies.

The tone of the report seems largely positive, albeit cautiously optimistic. With two expected Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and continued expansionary fiscal policy, the economic landscape remains supportive for the time being.

In a year where copper prices are rising due to supply constraints and fiscal expansion, and where S&P earnings are expected to grow 14% despite moderate price gains, the market seems primed for change. The crucial question is whether AI will become a productivity engine or a source of instability; a debate that will dominate the next twelve months. Cryptocurrency, particularly in its more infrastructure-focused forms, can play a significant role in this discourse, though it is not yet the center of discussion.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main drivers of expected economic growth in 2026?
The expected economic growth will come primarily from investments in artificial intelligence, corporate investment, and fiscal stimulus. These factors, combined with interest rate cuts, will play a crucial role.

How are AI investments impacting the crypto market?
The rising demand for powerful computers for AI applications has led to a surge in the value of mining infrastructure. Crypto miners now profit from both mining Bitcoin and leasing capacity to AI companies.

What are the risks in the financial markets due to AI?
As AI's impact on inflation and labor markets becomes clearer, markets could experience significant volatility. A "K-shaped" recovery, where some sectors thrive and others lag, adds complexity and increases the risk of mispricing.